Will we revoke Article 50?

I have hitherto shied away from commenting on the Brexit farrago.  This is because things change so quickly and unpredictably that anything one writes is likely to be quickly overtaken by events.  However, having just watched John McDonnell on the Marr programme, I will venture an opinion.

 

From John McDonnell’s tone (accusing Theresa May of bad faith) it doesn’t look as though the inter-party negotiations are going to get anywhere.  Even if an agreement could be reached, it is doubtful whether it could get through Parliament.  A majority of Conservatives would vote against a customs union (“arrangement”) and a majority of all opposition members would vote against any deal that was not subject to a confirmatory referendum.

So, assuming that the current negotiations come to nothing, what are the possibilities?  I think there are three.

1.    May’s Deal + Referendum

Firstly, the only possible compromise that I think might command a majority in the House of Commons would be May’s Deal subject to a referendum.  This would of course incorporate the Irish backstop and would therefore be opposed by extreme Europhobes (ERG etc) and the DUP, but possibly enough Conservatives would be prepared to support it while risking the possibility of a referendum cancelling Brexit completely.  Equally, there might be sufficient Labour and other Opposition MPs prepared to hold their noses and vote for May’s Deal provided that it was tied to a second referendum.

However, there are two problems with this.  Theresa May has been adamant that there will not be another referendum “in any circumstances” and she has not previously shown much willingness to compromise; and a number of northern Labour MPs and Corbyn associates have bitterly opposed a second referendum on the somewhat irrational argument that it would be “undemocratic”, “a betrayal” etc.  So such a proposal might not get through the Commons.

The second problem is that the timetable for a referendum would probably take us beyond the current drop dead date of 31 October 2019, when we are due to leave the EU (with or without a deal).  A second referendum will require legislation (unpredictable in itself, especially as the Lords would also have say) and, unlike the first referendum, the legislation would have to specify very clearly what action must follow from the result.   If the timetable goes beyond 31 October, the EU would have to agree to a further extension, and it is not at all certain that all the EU member states would unanimously agree.  However, on balance it is unlikely that any member state would wish to be seen as effectively expelling such an important and long-standing member of the EU (especially as it is a major net contributor to its budget).

In a rational world, this proposal (May’s Deal + Referendum) would be the most obvious and sensible outcome, but of course the world is not rational.  Personal ambition, tribal loyalty and the desire to retain one’s Parliamentary seat all conspire to defeat rationality. 

2.    No Deal Brexit

No Deal is of course the default option if nothing else is agreed.  It is apparently the preferred choice for many Conservatives, but the House of Commons has twice rejected it by a large margin.  Given that the EU has now made it clear that any trade agreement between the UK and the EU must incorporate the Irish backstop, even if we leave without a deal, it is difficult to see Parliament allowing No Deal to happen. Even the Europhobes should be able to realise that there is no point in leaving without a deal if we still have to accept the Irish backstop in order to trade with the EU.

3.    Cancel Brexit (for now)

The third possibility – if no agreement can be reached and No Deal is rejected – is to cancel Brexit completely.  If the Government were to oppose this, it could be done by Parliament legislating to require the Government to revoke the Notification under Article 50 of the Treaty of Lisbon (just as it required the Government to request an extension of the Article 50 time period).  The effect of this would be to confirm the UK as an EU member state of good standing and thus entitled to its place in the European Council with the right to nominate a member of the Commission and a Judge to the Court of Justice – not to mention full participation in the European Parliament.  It would also of course mean resuming the UK’s contribution to the EU budget – albeit this would now presumably have to be renegotiated for the period from 2021.

If this were to happen the longer term consequences are even more difficult to predict.  The Europhobes, the Daily Mail, UKIP and Nigel Farage would be outraged (or pretend to be).  It would be portrayed as a betrayal of democracy and there would no doubt be threats of social unrest.  The matter would not end there, and there would in all probability be further attempts to restart the Brexit process. The current poisonous state of British politics would continue and perhaps do longlasting damage to our Parliamentary democracy and constitution.

Conclusion

Which scenario is the most likely? I don’t know.

What I will say is that the least damaging outcome would probably be May’s Deal + Referendum.   If this resulted in confirmation of Brexit, although I think this would be damaging and undesirable, at least people would have voted in full knowledge of the consequences, and the result would reluctantly have to be accepted.  We would then spend the next few years arguing about the details of the trade agreement foreshadowed in the political declaration.

If the result of a second referendum were to be the cancellation of Brexit, the Europhobes would probably cry foul, but I think they would have difficulty in arguing that the first referendum represented the “will of the people” but the second one didn’t.  They wouldn’t give up of course (and would probably continue to cause trouble for the Conservative Party), but I think it would be a long time before the British people were ready for another attempt to leave the EU.

So I am hoping for May’s Deal + Referendum (with a “Remain” result), but I fear that Cancel Brexit (without a referendum) is a distinct possibility and that the issue will continue to poison UK politics for years to come.

© 2019 Robin Paice