More thoughts on the election disaster - and the next Labour Leader

This is really a supplement to my earlier article. Most of it is actually quoted from a letter to an old friend, in which I described my own experiences canvassing in Portsmouth. This is what I wrote:

“I have spent a lot of time in the last few weeks canvassing for the Labour Party, so the election result has been devastating - albeit I was expecting and dreading it.  Here in Portsmouth South we had probably the best result in the country following almost the best result in 2017.  This time the Labour vote increased by nearly 5000, the vote share by 7.6% (on the same turnout) with a swing of 3.9% to Labour.  The LibDems were a distant 3rd. 

How to explain?  Apart from demographic changes (Southsea is now quite multi-cultural), I think it may be the unwinding of a longstanding tactical vote that used to benefit the LibDems, who used to hold the seat.  This came about in the early 1980s, when the then Leader of the Labour Group defected to the SDP and took much of his support with him and won the previously safe Conservative seat.  Thereafter, although the area looks an obvious Labour target (look at the OS map to see the close packed terraced housing and the Council flats around the Dockyard) the LibDems managed to persuade the voters that only they could beat the Conservatives.  That lie was shattered in 2017, and nobody was taken in by their claim, endlessly repeated in leaflet after leaflet, that "Labour can't win here".  It was a well deserved humiliation - although sadly they still have minority control of the Council.

There is much dispute about why Labour lost so heavily in the North and Midlands of England.  I can only speak of my own experience in Portsmouth, which is that the main issues raised on the doorstep were (in priority order):

1. Brexit.  Even some Remainers were saying the result of the referendum should be respected.  Or they were fed up with the argument and wanted it "done" (even though it won't be).  I had one Green supporter who said that as there was no Green candidate (because of the pact with the LibDems) she would vote for Boris to get it done.
2. Jeremy Corbyn personally (not particularly his policy positions).  A common refrain was "if you change your leader, I might/would vote for you".  One woman (not a Labour supporter) told me "he doesn't share my values" - by which I think she meant patriotism, singing the national anthem, respecting the Queen, wearing a smart suit and not getting into debt etc.  Nobody mentioned anti-semitism, although I did have one door-slammer with a Jewish name.
3. The manifesto was not credible.  Even if the original costings were correct (the IFS questioned them), the stream of additional unfunded commitments, especially free broadband and fully compensating the Waspi women, were quoted to me as examples of incompetent management - or worse.

So what now for Labour?  I would like to think we could find an articulate and persuasive Leader who would keep the best of Labour's policies (reversing austerity and benefit cuts, restoring local government funding, public investment financed by borrowing, avoiding foreign wars, re-inventing council housing and local education, and above all seriously tackling climate change).  I am not sure whether such a person exists.”

The next Leader

It is early days yet in the Labour Leadership election, and not all the candidates who have announced will get on the ballot paper.  In theory, as candidates need 22 nominations from MPs and MEPs (as well as nominations from CLPs and trade unions) there could be up to nine candidates, but in practice it is likely to be much fewer than this. Keir Starmer is said to be the bookies’ favourite, and that is probably the current position.  He is undoubtedly an accomplished performer in television interviews and in Parliament, and he comes over as genuine and well thought out.  His background as DPP and earlier as a barrister working pro bono for worthy causes is a definite asset.  However, I am not clear about his policy positions and underlying values.  Maybe we shall find out more when the campaign gets going.  His view that Labour must return to being a “broad church” is all very well – as long as it doesn’t include Blairite policies such as academy schools, or acquiescing in benefit cuts or bombing or invading Middle Eastern countries.  It also implies some distancing of himself from the Corbyn regime – albeit he was part of it.

I am rather surprised at the elevation of Rebecca Long-Bailey to joint favourite as the Corbynite continuity candidate.  It would be nice to have a woman as Leader, but not just because she is a woman.  She has seemed to me to be evasive and unconvincing in television interviews, and her Brexit position was ambivalent.  Like many northern Labour MPs she opposed a clear Remain position before the European election, which may have led to the partial recovery of the LibDems at Labour’s expense.  Her stance also contributed to the perception of the Party as divided and confused.  So I think she has fences to mend.

Angela Rayner would be a more promising candidate but is reported to be aiming at the Deputy Leadership. However, she too has been ambivalent on Brexit, and we need to know more about her policy positions on issues other than her education brief.  

Perhaps the most convincing potential left wing candidate is Clive Lewis.  As a veteran of the Afghan war, he is relatively immune to the “unpatriotic” slur yet has taken progressive positions on issues such as university tuition fees and revoking Article 50.  The one to watch?

Of the other candidates mentioned so far, I don’t rate the chances of Emily Thornberry (too posh, and handicapped by the memory of that unfortunate white van man tweet), Yvette Cooper (yesterday’s woman, identified with Blair/Brown regime, voted for Iraq war, abstained on benefit cap), Dan Jarvis (relatively unknown but perceived as right wing, also military veteran, but Sheffield metro-mayor?), or Jess Phillips (outspoken rentaquote, crude language, publicity seeker, pro-Israel, opponent of Corbyn, supported Yvette Cooper in 2015).

For me, a key issue will be electoral reform – by which I mean proportional representation and preferably STV.  I won’t vote for any candidate who does not support PR. 

©  2020   Robin Paice