Not the worst ever result

I keep reading or hearing that last month’s election result was the worst for the Labour Party since 1935, and that the Party is in terminal decline.  Before this statement becomes an established “fact”, I think a reality check would be in order.

Make no mistake.  It was a very bad result, and I would not wish to minimise it.  But equally, amidst all the self-flagellation, I don’t think we should exaggerate it.  

I have extracted the table below from House of Commons Library Briefing Paper Nr CBP7529  “UK Election Statistics: 1918-2019: A Century of Elections” updated to include the 2019 election results from the BBC website.  It shows the number of seats won by Labour compared with the Party's share of the vote in England, Scotland, Wales and Great Britain.  I have picked out some key figures in red.

	England		Scotland		Wales		Total GB
Year	Seats	%	Seats	%	Seats	%	Seats	%
2019	179	34.0	1	18.6	22	40.9	202	32.1
2017	227	41.9	7	27.1	28	48.9	262	41.0
2015	206	31.6	1	24.3	25	36.9	232	31.2
2010	191	28.1	41	42.0	26	36.2	258	29.7
2005	286	35.5	40	38.9	29	42.7	355	36.1
2001	323	41.4	55	43.3	34	48.6	413	42.0
1997	328	43.5	56	45.6	34	54.7	418	44.3
1992	195	33.9	49	39.0	27	49.5	271	35.2
1987	155	29.5	50	42.4	24	45.1	229	31.5
1983	148	26.9	41	35.1	20	37.5	209	28.3
1979	203	29.5	44	41.5	21	47.0	268	37.7
1974 Oct	255	40.1	41	36.3	23	49.5	319	40.2
1974 Feb	237	37.7	40	36.6	24	46.8	301	38.0
1970	216	43.2	44	44.5	27	51.6	287	43.8
1966	285	47.8	46	49.9	32	60.7	363	48.7
1964	246	43.5	43	48.7	28	57.8	317	44.8
1959	285	43.6	38	46.7	27	56.4	258	44.6
1955	216	46.8	34	46.7	27	57.6	277	47.4
1951	233	48.8	35	47.9	27	60.5	295	49.4
1950	251	46.1	37	46.2	27	58.1	315	46.8
1945	331	48.6	37	47.9	25	58.6	393	48.8
1935	116	38.6	20	37.2	18	45.4	154	37.8
1931	29	30.2	7	32.0	16	44.1	52	31.1

Sources:  House of Commons Library Briefing Paper Nr CBP7529  “UK Election Statistics: 1918-2019: A Century of Elections”

BBC website

What this shows is that the 2019 total of Labour seats in Great Britain was indeed the lowest since 1935, and this is the figure that Labour’s external and internal critics have fastened upon.  However, if you look a bit deeper, the picture is more complex.

In the first place, the number of seats won is not proportional to vote share.  Under the First Past the Post system, much depends on whether a Party’s vote is concentrated or evenly dispersed, so a better indication of the popularity of a party is its vote share rather than seats won.

On this basis the vote share won by the Labour Party in Great Britain in 2019, bad though it was, was actually larger than it was in 2015, 2010, 1987 and 1983.  

The main reason why the number seats won by Labour dropped in 2015 and the two subsequent elections was the collapse of the Party’s vote in Scotland, which obviously was related to the nationalist upsurge.  If we look at England alone, the number of seats won by Labour in 2019 was greater than in 1987 or 1983.

The problem with exaggerating the scale of Labour’s defeat is that the wrong conclusions may be drawn, and the baby thrown out with the bathwater. The Party appears to have a special attachment to its so called “heartland” seats in the North (former coalfield and post-industrial towns such as Mansfield, Wakefield  and Blyth) while not celebrating its relative success over the past two decades in London, the big cities and university towns (e.g. Sheffield Hallam, Cambridge and Canterbury).

Some have argued¹ that this reflects a profound social or demographic change, in which the old class-based politics appears to be giving way to politics based on cultural values, lifestyles and level of education.  Many of Labour’s lost voters in the “heartland” constituencies are socially conservative.  They have not travelled widely abroad, speak no foreign languages, have not been to university, have no or minimal contact with black, Asian or even European people, don’t hold with gay marriage, and they respect the Queen. 

If this theory is correct it would also help to explain both the EU Referendum result and why the Labour vote dropped so much in the Leave-voting areas.  It was a vote for traditional values and lifestyles, and against foreign influences (internationalism, human rights, foreign bureaucrats).  It would also explain why Brexit was such a difficult issue for Labour to deal with, and why it was such a crucial factor in Labour’s defeat.

But to return to my original point.  The election result was bad, but not quite as bad as some have claimed. The Party has recovered from worse disasters and could do so again.  

¹See David Goodhart (2017) The Road to Somewhere

©   2020   Robin Paice

Postscript:

Since writing the above, I have come across this article by Joe Lo, of Left Foot Forward:

https://leftfootforward.org/2020/02/how-each-constituencys-labour-vote-share-changed-under-corbyn/?mc_cid=ea883bd7f5&mc_eid=3807f119e5

It refers to a report that between 2015 and 2019, although Labour lost over 30 seats, it increased its vote share in 396 seats and reduced it in the remaining 234.